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Faced with rising costs and a lack of soldiers to respond to other overseas missions, Jean Chretien has ordered that Canadian troops be pulled out of Kosovo by the spring.
In a Nov. 8 letter to Art Eggleton, the Defence Minister, the prime minister states that he agrees with a recommendation that Canada should focus and consolidate its military contribution to the former Yugoslavia by concentrating on Bosnia.
"It is clear that we cannot sustain the present level of Canadian Forces involvement in both Kosovo and Bosnia beyond next summer," Mr. Chretien writes. "The costs involved and the lack of capability to respond to new peace and security challenges requires us to reduce and consolidate our contribution to NATO operations in the Balkans.
"I do not see the requirement to maintain any significant Canadian Forces presence in Kosovo beyond the spring of 2000," the prime minister wrote in the letter.
The number of Canadian troops in the Balkans will be reduced from the current 2,800 to about 1,800.
The news comes two weeks after George Robertson, the new NATO secretary-general, said during a visit to Ottawa that Canada is second-to-last among NATO members in terms of defence spending as a percentage of gross domestic product. Canada's military budget equals 1.15% of the GDP. Only Luxembourg, with 0.84%, has lower spending.
In contrast, the United States spends 3.23% of GDP and Greece, the No. 1 spender, devotes 4.92% to the military.
Lord Robertson praised Canada for its contributions to NATO over the years but stressed the need for more money and said Canada "needs to do more in terms of modernization."
Senior Canadian officers have been warning that the military is being stretched to the breaking point and cannot take on more new missions. Gen. Maurice Baril, Chief of Defence Staff, has said soldiers are at the point of burnout from taking part in continual overseas deployments.
A record number of Canadian troops are now deployed overseas in peacekeeping operations, at a time when the military has been reduced by more than a quarter of its previous strength.
The current number of military personnel on foreign operations reached more than 4,400 this month, beating the previous high in overseas missions in 1992, when 4,300 Canadian soldiers were serving in Somalia, Bosnia and Cambodia, among other places. At that time, military commanders were already warning that the Canadian Forces was stretched to the breaking point.
But in 1992, there were almost 85,000 personnel in the Canadian Forces. Reductions ordered by the Liberal government have dropped that to the current 60,000.
The 4,400 troops now overseas are on 22 missions, which include service in Bosnia, Kosovo and East Timor.
Mr. Chretien said in the letter that he believes NATO will have sufficient forces in Kosovo to continue to maintain peace there. Continuing Canada's military presence until the spring, as well as Canadian humanitarian and reconstruction assistance, will make a significant contribution as well, he adds.
But the prime minister also notes that Canadian troops in Bosnia will be in that country for the long haul.
"In keeping with Cabinet's decision of April, 1998, on Canadian participation in SFOR [Bosnia], the commitment will be of an indefinite duration. Annual reports on the situation are to be made to Cabinet," he wrote.
The cost for those troops in Bosnia will be about $200-million annually. Mr. Chretien's letter was also sent to Lloyd Axworthy, the Foreign Affairs Minister.
Randy Mylyk, press secretary to Art Eggleton, Defence Minister, confirmed the contents of the letter, but said: "The work (in Kosovo) is not all done by troops."
Art Hanger, the Reform party defence critic, said the prime minister's decision will be a welcome relief for overworked Canadian troops. But he also cautioned that there might be an ulterior motive behind the Kosovo pullout. "I wonder if they have another overseas operation on the burner that they're expecting in the near future and they want to free up troops for," he said.
Mr. Hanger said it is revealing that Mr. Chretien's letter acknowledges the shortcomings in the Canadian Forces. "The question now is what is he going to do about it?" he asked.
The answer, however, is likely to be not much. Responding last week to the criticism from Lord Robertson that Canada is lagging behind in its military spending, Mr. Chretien indicated the Canadian Forces will have to make do with the money it is already receiving.
"We are doing what we can and the Canadian Forces are performing very well with the budget they have so far," he said.
Mr. Axworthy has also dismissed criticism that Canadian influence in the world is waning because of the lack of troops.
He rejected as outdated the arguments from defence analysts that troop strength and defence spending equals influence.
Just as important in establishing influence, he pointed out, was a new $100-million aid package to help rebuild Kosovo and other areas in the Balkans.
The issue of whether Canada has enough soldiers to meet its overseas commitment and those set out in the Liberal government's 1994 defence white paper also resurfaced recently in a new book by a U.S.-based defence analyst.
In the book, The Canadian Forces: Hard Choices, Soft Power, defence analyst Joseph Jockel argues that old equipment, insufficient training and a shortage of troops have left the Canadian army incapable of meeting one of the main goals set out in the defence white paper. That goal is to have a combat-ready brigade that can be sent overseas in the event of war.
To meet that goal, the Canadian army would have to commit about half its current field force, according to Mr. Jockel.
But that would leave too few troops in Canada to sustain such a unit and not enough soldiers to deal with any problems which might arise domestically, he writes.
Mr. Eggleton has dismissed suggestions the Canadian Forces can't meet the white paper goals. Gen. Baril, along with his policy advisors, have also said that the Canadian military is at its most combat capable in the past three decades.